 |
| |
 | ||
30th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
|| Home || Before
You Go || Registration || Schedule of Events
|| Lodging ||
Schedule of Events
All events take place at the Nittany Lion Inn, unless otherwise stated.
| Program for the 30th Annual Climate Diagnostics & Prediction Workshop |
| The Pennsylvania State University |
| October 24-28, 2005 |
| Updated October 10 - additions noted by asterisk |
October 24, 2005 7:00-8:00 Registration 7:15-8:00 Poster Set-up 8:00-8:30 Welcoming and Opening Remarks Mr. James Laver, Director, Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Dr. Bill Brune, Chair, Department of Meteorology / The Pennsylvania State University Mr. Paul Knight, Department of Meteorology / The Pennsylvania State University Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/NWS/NOAA SESSION 1: SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED) Chair: Jae Schemm 8:30-8:45 The NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) / 1st CTB Annual Meeting Wayne Higgins 8:45-9:15 An Overview of New Developments with the CFS Suranjana Saha 9:15-10:30 POSTER SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS AND MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES 10:30-11:00 An Analysis of Subseasonal Variability in the NCEP CFS and NASA NSIPP Coupled GCMs Myong-In Lee, Siegfried Schubert, and Max Suarez 11:00-11:30 Coupled Shock Initialization in the CFS Prediction System Ben Kirtman 11:30-12:00 Marine Stratus and its Relationship to Regional and Large-Scale Circulations: An Examination with the NCEP CFS Simulations Pingping Xie, Wanqui Wang, Wayne Higgins and Phil Arkin 12:00-1:30 LUNCH SESSION 1: SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED) cont. Chair: Jae Schemm 1:00-1:30 Using GLDAS to Derive Optimal Land States for CFS/Noah Testing in the NOAA Climate Test Bed Jesse Meng, Kenneth Mitchell, and Helin Wei 1:30-2:00 Evaluation of CFS-Tier2 Forecasts with Bias-Corrected SST Jae Schemm, K. Seo, Q.Zhang and M. L’Heureux SESSION 2: MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED) Chair: Arun Kumar 2:00-2:30 MM Ensembles for Week 1 and Week 2 Predictions Edward O’Lenic, Zoltan Toth and David Unger 2:30-3:00 Multi-Model Ensembling for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction: From Simple to Complex Lisa Goddard and Simon Mason 3:00-3:30 BREAK 3:30-4:00 Performance-Based Probabilistic Multi-Model Climate Change Scenarios Arthur Greene, Lisa Goddard and Upmanu Lall 4:00-4:30 Multi-model Ensembles, Climate Attribution and Predictions Arun Kumar 4:30-5:00 From DEMETER to EURO-SIP : The European Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project Richard Graham 5:00-5:30 APCC Multi-model Ensemble Seasonal Prediction System Chung-Kyu Park, Won-Tae Yun, and Hyun-Kyung Kim 5:30-7:00 ICE BREAKER RECEPTION & CASH BAR (Nittany Lion Inn) 7:00-10:00 NOAA CTB Science Advisory Board / Oversight Board Executive Session Tuesday, October 25, 2005 7:15-8:00 POSTER SET-UP SESSION 3: SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION AND APPLICATIONS (NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED) Chair: Huug van den Dool 8:00-8:30 An Evaluation of the Probabilistic Information in the Multi-Model Ensemble Predictions. David Unger, Peitao Peng, Suranjana Saha and Huug van den Dool 8:30-9:00 Objective weighting of Multi-Method Seasonal Predictions Huug van den Dool, David Unger, Peitao Peng, Malaquias Pena and Suranjana Saha 9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 2: CLIMATE MONITORING AND PREDICTION *1:00 Welcoming by Penn State
University President Dr. Graham Spanier *6:00-8:00 Reception at
Earth and Mineral Science Museum, Deike Building Wednesday, October 26, 2005 7:15-8:00 POSTER SET-UP SESSION 6: DIURNAL AND INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY Chair: 8:00-8:30 An Examination of the Diurnal Cycle in the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Precipitation Forecasts Vernon Kousky, John Janowiak and Robert Joyce 8:30-9:00 Simulations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by Global Weather Prediction and Climate Models Chidong Zhang, Min Dong, Harry Hendon, Kenneth Sperber, Eric Maloney, Andrew Marshall and Wanqui Wang 9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 3: INTRASEASONAL, INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY 10:30-11:00 Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 22 Weather and Climate Forecasting Models: Encouraging Results, Common Biases, and Possible Missing Physics Jialin Lin 11:00-11:30 Variability of the Atlantic ITCZ Associated with Amazon Rainfall and Convectively Coupled Kelvin waves Hui Wang and Rong Fu 11:30-12:00 Tropical and Stratospheric Influences on Extratropical Variability and Predictability Matthew Newman and Prashant Sardeshmukh 12:00-1:00 LUNCH SESSION 7: LONG-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE Chair: 1:00-1:30 Regional Expression of Multi-Decadal Variability in the Arctic Uma Bhatt, Igor Polyakov and Roman Bekryaev 1:30-2:00 An Observational Analysis of Decadal Variations in the Madden Julian Oscillation Charles Jones and Leila Carvalho 2:00-2:30 Variability and Trends in Global Precipitation as Revealed in an Analysis of the GPCP Data Chester Ropelewski and Phil Arkin 2:30-3:00 Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in the Tropics in the Twentieth Century Coupled Climate Simulations Hailan Wang and K.-M. Lau 3:05-3:30 BREAK SESSION 8: TELECONNECTIONS Chair: George Young 3:30-4:00 The Link Between Tropical Precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Mathew Sapiano and Phillip Arkin 4:00-4:30 Preferred Modes of Variability and Their Relationship with Climate Change Seok-Woo Son and Sukyoung Lee 4:30-5:00 A Global Convection Circulation Paradigm for the Annular Mode Ming Cai and R-C Ren 5:00-5:30 Best Practices vs Misuse of PC Analysis (PCA) in the Analysis of Climate Variability Robert Livezey 6:00-9:00 WORKSHOP BANQUET Banquet Speaker: Charles L. Hosler (tentatively) Thursday, October 27, 2005 7:15-8:00 POSTER SET-UP SESSION 9: HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY Chair: Ken Davis 8:00-8:30 An Experimental Real-Time Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System for the Western US Andrew Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier 8:30-9:00 Mechanisms for Interannual Variations in Summer Streamflow from Headwater Catchments in Western Mexico David Gochis and Luis Brillo-Castillo 9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 4: HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY AND MONSOONS 10:30-11:00 Intercomparison of US Land Surface Hydrologic Cycles from Multi-reanalyses and Models Yun Fan and Huug van den Dool 11:00-11:30 Role of Sub-synoptic Variability of Soil Moisture in Seasonal Precipitation Variations Song Yang, S. Yoo, R. Yang, K. Mitchell, H. van den Dool and W. Higgins 11:30-12:00 Preliminary results from 50-year 10km resolution downscaling over California. Masao Kanamitsu and Hideki Kanamaru 12:00-1:00 LUNCH (on own) SESSION 10: MONSOONS AND WARM SEASON PREDICTION Chair: Jenni Evans 1:00-1:30 An Introduction to the Globally Unified Monsoon Index (GUMI) Xubin Zeng and Er Lu 1:30-2:00 Northern Summer Circumglobal Teleconnection and Tropics-Extratropics Interaction Bin Wang 2:00-2:30 Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over the Sahel Wassila Thiaw and Kingtse Mo 2:30-3:00 Impact of Tropical Easterly Waves on the North American Monsoon Jennifer Adams and David Stensrud 3:00-3:30 BREAK 3:30-4:00 Warm Season Diurnal Cycle Simulations Over North America - Sensitivities to Model Resolution Myong-In Lee, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Julio Bacmeister, Phil Pegion, Isaac Held, Jeff Ploshay, Gabriel Lau, Arun Kumar, Hyun-Kyung Kim and Jae Schemm 4:00-4:30 Warm Season Precipitation Prediction over North America Using the Eta Regional Climate Model Rongqian Yang and Kenneth Mitchell 4:30-5:00 The Intra-Americas Sea Low-Level Jet: An Analysis of Atmospheric Sounding Observations Jorge Amador, Erick Rivera, Marcela Ulate and Chidong Zhang 5:00-5:30 A June Monsoon David Mitchell, Dorothea Ivanova, and David Gochis Friday, October 28, 2005 SESSION 11: RESULTS FROM NAME 2004 Chair: David Gochis 8:00-8:30 Radar Observations During NAME 2004 - Data Products and Initial Results Timothy Lang, David Ahijevich, Rit Carbone, Rob Cifelli, Stephen Nesbitt, Gustavo Pereira and Steven Rutledge 8:30-9:00 Main Results and Future Plans for the NAME Enhanced Rain Gauge Network (NERN) Christopher Watts, David Gochis, Julio Rodriguez and Jaime Garatuza - Payan 9:00-9:30 BREAK 9:30-10:00 A 50 Year Analysis of Rain Bearing Synoptic Features in Northern Mexico: Placing the NAME 2004 Summer Experiments in an Historical Context Arthur Douglas and Phillp Englehart 10:00-10:30 NAME CPT Project - Issues for Warm Season Prediction Jae Schemm and David Gutzler 10:30-11:00 The Impact of the NAME 2004 Special Soundings on the NCEP Analyses and Forecasts Kingtse Mo, Eric Rogers, Wesley Ebisuzaki and Wayne Higgins 11:00-11:30 Model Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle and Moisture Surges Along the Gulf of California During NAME E. Berbery and E. Becker 11:30-12:00 Assessment and Verification of North American Monsoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model using 2004 NAME EOP Data David Gochis 12:00 CDPW WORKSHOP ENDS 12:00-5:00 Interim NAME (SWG 7.5)Meeting |
| POSTER PRESENTATIONS |
|
Monday October 24,2005 9:15-10:30 POSTER SESSION 1: CLIMATE MODEL ASSESSMENTS AND MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES P1.1 Climate Model Diagnoses from a Weather Modeler’s Point of View Hualu Pan and Suranjana Saha P1.2 Impact of a New Land Surface Model on the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) Helin Wei, Sarah Lu, Kenneth Mitchell and Jesse Meng P1.3 Identification of El Nino’s Dynamical Regime in the Climate Forecast System Cecile Penland and Suranjana Saha P1.4 Comparison of the NCEP CFS Model Simulated Indian Summer Monsoon - ENSO Relationship and Local Air-Sea Relationship With Observations Renguang Wu and Ben Kirtman P1.5 Simulation and Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in the CFS K. Pegion, D. Straus, B. Kirtman and J. Shukla P1.6 Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of CFS Simulations in the Tropics Wilbur Chen P1.7 Indian Ocean SST Variability, Predictability and Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Qin Zhang and Arun Kumar P1.8 Mean State and Predictive Skill of the NCEP Coupled Forecast System in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hohua Huang and Zeng-Zhen Hu P1.9 ENSO-Related Salinity Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from Simulations of a Coupled Model (CFS03) Sudhir Nadiga, Wanqui Wang, Jiande Wang and David Behringer P1.10 Relationship Between Forecast Skill and Ensemble Size in the NCEP CFS Wanqui Wang, and Arun Kumar P1.11 Effect of Ensemble Size on Forecasts of Seasonal Extremes Lisa Goddard and Simon Mason P1.12 Ensemble Weighting: Can we do better than the ensemble mean of the CFS? Wesley Ebisuzaki P1.13 The Effect of SST Forcing on Seasonal Prediction by Nonlinear Multimodel Ensemble Suhee Park, Sung-Dae Kang and Won-Tae Kwon P1.14 Assessing Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Skill and Predictability from a Hierarchy of Atmospheric and Coupled GCM Ensemble Forecasts W. Stern, R. Gudgel and A. Rosati P1.15 The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in the NCEP GFS and CFS Simulation Runs Kyong-Hwan Seo, Jae Schemm, Wanqui Wang and Arun Kumar P1.16 Prediction of Global SST Using a Markov Model Yan Xue P1.17 Preliminary Comparison of Climate Predictions with Fully Coupled and Anomaly Coupled Versions of the COLA 3.0 MOM3 Coupled GCM M. Fennessy, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, L. Marx, V. Misra, D. Paolina, D. Straus P1.18 Real-time Monitoring and Verification of the MJO in the NCEP GFS and CFS Forecasts Kyong-Hwan Seo, Jae Schemm, and Wanqui Wang P1.19 The Continuum and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Christian Franzke and Steven Feldstein P1.20 Indian Summer Monsoon Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Catherine Thiaw, Suranjana Saha, Diane Stokes and Steve Lord P1.21 Anomaly Initialization in the CFS Prediction System Eric Altshuler and Ben Kirtman Tuesday October 25, 2005 9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 2: CLIMATE MONITORING AND PREDICTION P2.1 The 2005 Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane Season Gerald Bell and Muthuvel Chelliah P2.2 Storm Track Monitoring and Research at the Climate Prediction Center Jon Gottschalck, Wayne Higgins and Tim Eichler P2.3 The abnormally Wet Winter (2004-2005) in Southern California: The Role of Atmospheric Blocking Marco Carrera P2.4 Activity of the Major Climate Modes in the Past Year (Oct. 2004-Sep. 2005) Peitao Peng P2.5 Overview of the 2005 Monsoons Wayne Higgins, Wei Shi, Viviane Silva, Wassila Thiaw, Pingping Xie and Muthuvel Chelliah P2.6 Dust Observations in El Paso Del Norte During the 2005 North American Monsoon Season Karina Apodaca and Vernon Morris P2.7 U.S. Real Time Drought Monitoring Based on NCEP Regional Reanalysis Muthuvel Chelliah and Kingtse Mo P2.8 An Experimental Daily Surface Water Monitor for the Continental US Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda and Dennis Lettenmaier P2.9 A Web Site for NCEP’s Operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System Yan Xue and Boyin Huang P2.10 On the Nature of the Recent SW US Drought P. Pegion, S. Schubert, M. Suarez and R. Koster P2.11 Predictability of the NCEP Coupled Forecast System Kyung Jin, James Kinter and Jagadish Shukla P2.12 A Suitable Bias Correction for CFS Forecasts Peitao Peng, Arun Kumar, Wanqui Wang, Qin Zhang and Bhaskar Jha P2.13 Mean Bias Correction on NCEP Regional Spectral Model for Seasonal Climate Simulations Hann-Ming Juang and Jun Wang P2.14 Regional Climate Prediction by NCEP Regional Spectral Model Jun wang and Hann-Ming Juang P2.15 Predictability of Precipitation over Nordeste From the Climate Forecast System of NCEP V. Misra and Yuning Zhang P2.16 Prediction Skill of NAO and PNA From Daily to Seasonal Time Scales Ake Johansson P2.17 The New ECPC GSM/MIT Coupled Experimental Seasonal Prediction Model Elena Yulaeva, Masao Kanamitsu and John Roads P2.18 The Impact of Cloud Water Schemes on Seasonal Prediction Akhihiko Shimpo and Masao Kanamitsu P2.19 Feasibility Study of the Downscaling of Global Seasonal Forecasts over the Western US Masao Kanamitsu and Laurel Dehaan P2.20 Regional Downscaling over Southeast Asia by using RegCM3 Jian-Hua Qian P2.21 Predictability of Ensemble Weather Forecasts with a Newly Derived Similarity Index Tomohito Yamada, Shinjiro Kanae and Taikan Oki P2.22 Effect of Noise on Predictions Based on Empirical Models Derived from Coupled Simulations Rameshan Kallummal and Ben Kirtman P2.23 National Weather Service Eastern Region Climate Outreach Toolkit Patricia Wnek P2.24 Science and Technology Infusion Climate Bulletin Jiayu Zhou P2.25 Web-Based Climate Product Portals from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center and Regional Climate Centers Timothy Owen Wednesday October 26, 2005 9:10-10:30 POSTER SESSION 3: INTRASEASONAL, INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL VARIABILITY P3.1 Distinct Precursors for El Nino and La Nina Onsets Wilbur Chen P3.2 Propagation Characteristics of Off-Equatorial Synoptic Scale Disturbances and its Association with ENSO Phase Transitions Zuqiang Zhang and Renhe Zhang P3.3 The Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Anticyclones Timothy Eichler and Wayne Higgins P3.4 Analysis of Atmospheric Signal and Noise to Tropical SSTs in Eight AGCMs Bhaskar Jha and Arun Kumar P3.5 The CFS126: a dynamical system for subseasonal forecasts -- challenges in predicting the MJO. Augustin Vintzileos and Hualu Pan P3.6 The Annual Cycle of Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System Anomalies Over Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans Natalia Vjazilova P3.7 East Eurasian Snow Cover Triggering the Northern Annular Mode Eun-Jeong Cha and M. Kimoto P3.8 Simulated Global Snow from the CPC Leaky Bucket Soil and Snow Model Yun Fan and Huug van den Dool P3.9 Role of Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extremes on Atmospheric Circulation Uma Bhatt and Michael Alexander P3.10 Evidence of Changes in the Atmospheric Tropical Circulation and Implications for Antarctic Ozone Trend Leila Carvalho and Charles Jones P3.11 The Signal of Pacific Pan-Decadal Variability in Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Fields Junye Chen, Anthony DelGenio and Barbara Carlson P3.12 Climate Change and Short-Term Forecasting For Alaskan Northern Coasts Gary Hufford and James Partain P3.13 Impact of Land Use Change on California’s Climate Hideki Kanamaru and Masao Kanamitsu P3.14 Radiosonde Monthly Statistics Dataset: An Extended Version For Upper-Air Climate Research Alexander Sterin and Arsenii Timofeev P3.15 Using CMORPH to Disaggregate Daily Rain Gauge Analyses to Hourly Analyses John Janowiak and Bob Joyce P3.16 Improved CPC Gridded Historical Daily Precipitation Analyses Over Brazil Viviane Silva, Vernon Kousky, Wei Shi and Wayne Higgins P3.17 Cool-Season Regime Transition and Its Impact on Precipitation in the Northeast Heather Archambault, Lance Bosart and Daniel Keyser P3.18 Relative cooling of the N. Indian Ocean: Its relation to aerosols and Indian/sub-Saharan Africa rainfall trends Chul Chung and V. Ramanathan Thursday October 27, 2005 9:00-10:30 POSTER SESSION 4: HYDROLOGIC VARIABILITY AND MONSOONS P4.1 Relationships Between Indo-Pacific SSTs and Asian-Australian Monsoon in the NCEP Models Soo-Hyun Yoo, Song Yang and Chang-Hoi Ho P4.2 Coordination of NAME Modeling and Field Activities Wayne Higgins and the NAME SWG P4.3 NAMAP2: A Multi-Model Assessment of North American Monsoon Simulations David Gutzler and NAMAP2 Collaborators P4.4 NAME Upper-Air Gridded Datasets: Description and Some Preliminary Results Paul Ciesielski, Richard Johnson, Peter Rogers and Richard Taft P4.5 An Observational Analysis of Two Gulf Surge Events During the 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment Peter Rogers, Richard Johnson, Paul Ciesielski and Brian McNoldy P4.6 The Diurnal Cycle of the Windfield Over Northwestern Mexico Based on the NAME Pilot Balloon Sounding Network Observations Michael Douglas, Javier Murillo, John Mejia, Raquel Orozco and Jose Galvez P4.7 Seasonal Evolution of the Sea-Land Breeze Circulation Along the Gulf of California and Possible Relations to Vegetation Green-Up Michael Douglas, Chris Watts, Jose Galvez, John Meija, Javier Murillo and Raquel Orozco P4.8 Role of Easterly Waves and the MJO in Gulf of California Moisture Surges Man Li Wu, Siegfried Schubert and Myong-In Lee P4.9 The Intra-Americas Sea Low-Level Jet Jorge Amador and Kingtse Mo P4.10 Characteristics of Daily Precipitation From the NAME Precipitation Assessment Project Wei Shi, Wayne Higgins, Viviane Silva and John Janowiak P4.11 Evaluating the Hydro-Estimator Satellite Rainfall Algorithm over a Mountainous Region Ismail Yucel, Robert Kuligowski and David Gochis P4.12 In-Phase and Out-of-Phase Relations Between Seasonal Precipitation and Precipitable Water: A Theoretical and Data Analysis Er Lu and Xubin Zeng P4.13 Shift of Summer Precipitation Variability in the Southeast United States Hui Wang and Rong Fu P4.14 Covariabilities Between Warm-Season Rainfall and Pre-Season Soil Moisture in the US: A Climate Modeling Study Wanru Wu and Robert Dickinson P4.15 The Role of Antecedent Land Surface Conditions in Warm Season Monsoon Precipitation over Northwestern Mexico 1950-2003 Chunmei Zhu, Dennis Lettenmaier and Tereza Cavazos P4.16 A Soil Moisture Initialization Scheme and its Impact on Quasi-Real Hindcasts of Summer Season Precipitation Anomalies over the USA Sergey Malyshev and C.T. Gordon P4.17 The impact of prescribed, model-diagnosed soil moisture on the interannual variability of AGCM-simulated precipitation over the USA C.T. Gordon and Sergey Malyshev P4.18 Soil Moisture Impacts on Potential and Actual Predictability Laurel DeHaan, Masao Kanamitsu, Sarah Lu and John Roads P4.19 Operational Streamflow Forecasts Development Using GCM Predicted Precipitation Fields A. Sankarasubramanian and Upmanu Lall P4.20 Experimental Statistical Climate Forecasts for the Interior Southwestern U.S.: Methodology and Skill Klaus Wolter P4.21 Climate and Management of the Colorado River Andrea Ray, Doug Kenney, and Roger Pulwarty P4.22 Climate Needs of Agricultural Researchers Paul Knight P4.23 A Coupled Mode over the NH Extra-Tropical Ocean and the Linkage to Potential Predictability of Climate over North America During Boreal Summer Hailan Wang and William Lau P4.24 Interseasonal Survey of Long-lived Positive Potential Vorticity Anomalies Generated from Monsoon Convection Stephen Saleeby and William Cotton |
